CONVECTIVE FORECAST
VALID Fri 27 Jan 06:00 - Sat 28 Jan 06:00 2006 (UTC)
ISSUED: 26 Jan 22:32 (UTC)
FORECASTER: TUSCHY

Thunderstorms are forecast across southwest Mediterranean

SYNOPSIS

Cold and stable airmass covers nearly all areas in Europe, so chances for any significant TSTM development are very slim.
Upper-level cold-core system, now present over France, will shift southwestward during the next 24 hours....on its southern flank, widespread pressure-fall forecasted over southern Spain,Strait of Gibraltar and later on over the Balearic Sea, where conditions should become more favorable for a few TSTMs to develop.

DISCUSSION

...southwest Mediterranean...
Models don't agree well with exact strength of low - level depression south of Spain and timing of its elongation towards the NE along a strengthening baroclinic zone ( being placed along the southern and eastern coast of Spain)... another uncertainty will be the exact location of this baroclinic zone... But conditions look favorable for a few TSTMs to develop south and east of this zone, where at least 100 - 200 J/kg SBCAPE are forecasted... Although it looks like best thermodynamic/kinematic fields will be displaced, don't want to exlude a few storms to become organized, because of complex jet streak distribution ( many pieces of energy are forecasted to cross the area of interest at H5 )... During the early night hours, coupled jet streak configuration will cover the Balearic Sea and should cause an increase in TSTMs... Don't want to draw a risk area ATM, because of pretty stable forecast soundings [ Mallorca ], marginal instability and over-all synoptic uncertainness.... Area may see one or two waterspout reports due to enhanced LL shear.

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